South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb360c52bbf3f9b57a1df54bba161dde510371ade85a1a9855bd5edc2964c3d91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,264 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 2,542$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.92 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 42c | 1,100$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.12 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 38c | 555.37$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.76 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 41c | 401$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.36 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 62c | 361.43$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.59 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Yes | 30c | 249.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 45c | 204.36$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.48 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Yes | 49c | 112.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 49c | 109.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 55c | 69.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Yes | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 44.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 45c | 37.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 38c | 33.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…cf2abacked Yes | 76c | 32.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Yes | 39c | 32.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 52c | 23.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…63a6backed Yes | 49c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…13d5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.