South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ddd62a7c2390db77e4087cc998f575341e880cefb242d8fe5f14e9767d9ba03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,217 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 9,276$4,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,125.55 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 6,914$3,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,457 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 23c | 1,172$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 75c | 1,062$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.62 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 51c | 992.85$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.95 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 58c | 855.52$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.45 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 24c | 834$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.16 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 74c | 599.1$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.13 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 51c | 593.94$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.57 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 79c | 535.09$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 51c | 392.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.25 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 388.78$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.53 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 73c | 349.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 24c | 192.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 33c | 160.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 52c | 145.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…df66backed Over | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Over | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 63c | 84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 71c | 73.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 49c | 60.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 43c | 59.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 50c | 55.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Under | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 50c | 50.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Under | 48c | 47.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 45c | 44.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 34c | 34.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 50c | 31.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…7676backed Under | 46c | 30.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 50c | 25.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 79c | 17.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5this page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.