South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf22339eda8ed276a475c1197cf14504a0d11ef94da31f10a2b67e6167135b172
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Deportivo Toluca FCof Deportivo Toluca FC, FC Juárez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,801 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked FC Juárez | 58c | 8,424$4,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,882.54 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 2,820$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Juárez | 64c | 2,206$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.26 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 41c | 2,200$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 36c | 1,480$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.4 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 42c | 628.19$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.77 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 40c | 624$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.12 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 33c | 515.39$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.87 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 33c | 457$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.43 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 41c | 427$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.93 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 41c | 360$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 41c | 339$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 35c | 300$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 59c | 259.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x432f…0b4cbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 37c | 172$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed FC Juárez | 34c | 146.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked FC Juárez | 66c | 133.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 52c | 124.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 42c | 119.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked FC Juárez | 74c | 66.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Juárez | 59c | 66.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed FC Juárez | 65c | 65.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed FC Juárez | 57c | 65.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 19c | 64.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 48c | 62.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 44c | 60.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 32c | 51.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 41.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked FC Juárez | 57c | 39.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 46c | 39.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…f69fbacked FC Juárez | 75c | 33.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked FC Juárez | 65c | 32.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…8663backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed FC Juárez | 56c | 31.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 42c | 28.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…f05dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…f766backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed FC Juárez | 52c | 19.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)this page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.