South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x693c47c540f9ffcc0c37959b746f452b9ec19286419a7f33235bdf77db304ec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,681 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 11,893$6,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,604.24 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 47c | 8,176$3,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,333.25 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 57c | 2,848$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.24 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 43c | 2,340$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.59 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 40c | 1,864$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.94 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 1,419$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.55 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 44c | 1,132$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 829.85$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.96 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 59c | 750$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.5 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 55c | 657.51$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.51 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 441.94$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.39 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 7c | 428.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 23c | 304.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.35 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 77c | 259.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 48c | 253$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.49 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…976abacked Under | 66c | 228.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Under | 63c | 208.53$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +93%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 38c | 201.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…51bcbacked Over | 25c | 189.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…476bbacked Under | 46c | 163$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…0d12backed Over | 54c | 163$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Over | 27c | 162$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.21 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked Under | 78c | 125$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 58c | 122.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked Over | 25c | 98.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 66c | 92.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 53c | 68.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Under | 77c | 64.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 54c | 61.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 27c | 59.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 53c | 56.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46b…b195backed Over | 35c | 55.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 40c | 54.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…3c1ebacked Over | 37c | 54.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Over | 37c | 53.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…46adbacked Over | 37c | 51.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Over | 37c | 49.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 55c | 47.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 32c | 44.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 38c | 43.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Over | 27c | 40.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 27c | 39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 54c | 38.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 45c | 30.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…bbafbacked Under | 43c | 29.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 44c | 28.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 55c | 27.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…73fcbacked Over | 58c | 24.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Under | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5985…a8cabacked Under | 53c | 19.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…7676backed Under | 60c | 18.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…c12abacked Under | 74c | 13.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5this page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.