South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd037a45cae023fd38d56612fb0bff62da2975e1978dad011cefbe312be35e01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,105 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 5,099$3,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,856.41 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 32c | 1,254$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.66 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 16c | 1,243$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.23 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Under | 20c | 555$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 6c | 477.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.33 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 37c | 443.54$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.85 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 76c | 288$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 120 | 65%78 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 44c | 283$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.14 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 66c | 265.71$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.13 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…9cd6backed Under | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 64c | 156.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…55a4backed Over | 31c | 153.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7608…92e2backed Under | 69c | 153.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 125$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 31c | 125$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 31c | 124.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 12c | 123.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 15c | 100.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde95…b97fbacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 31c | 97.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 39c | 81.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 55c | 66.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Over | 31c | 64.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 80c | 61.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Over | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 35c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Under | 46c | 37.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca7f…3006backed Over | 37c | 37.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Over | 31c | 36.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Over | 42c | 26.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Under | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…7676backed Under | 73c | 24.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 73c | 20.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 66c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5this page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.