NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb41ba3301dcc62c413dfbb13cd28fccc5f5eab383e5db43855391647a5b763d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 58c | 4,981$2,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.99 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 2,334$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.28 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 55c | 2,273$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.73 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 45c | 2,261$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.25 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 42c | 929$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.48 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 44c | 897.01$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.68 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 41c | 599.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 42c | 330.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 56c | 290.29$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.73 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 42c | 285.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Under | 44c | 125.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Under | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 42c | 101$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 41c | 96.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Under | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Under | 42c | 49.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 42c | 36.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Over | 58c | 28.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. CanadiensCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.