NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc4abdfffab39a9155f80b8837e5668666358c1734a7eafbc168dda6ffa0e936
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Canadiens, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Capitals | 67c | 1,255$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.15 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Canadiens | 33c | 909.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Canadiens | 33c | 705.29$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b7febacked Capitals | 67c | 597.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.01 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Canadiens | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Capitals | 67c | 251$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Capitals | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 17c | 114.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Canadiens | 30c | 114.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Capitals | 66c | 61.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Canadiens | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Canadiens | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Canadiens | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Capitals | 67c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. CanadiensCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.