Europa Conference League · resolved market
Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb42e41faf70e66f896b617b8bbde7f0d78f88d61a5c9ed7a67021a36fde651c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 46c | 3,261$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 2,538$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.05 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x123f…8d5fbacked Over | 13c | 1,917$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 49c | 1,697$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.63 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…3cbdbacked Under | 3c | 1,002$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 68c | 969.18$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.68 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 61c | 747.15$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.15 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Over | 8c | 625$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 280 | 12.9%36 W · 244 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…545bbacked Under | 58c | 474.14$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 34c | 466.49$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.96 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Under | 55c | 422.23$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.38 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 347.35$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.04 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 78c | 338.15$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 48c | 313.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.92 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Over | 78c | 263.33$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 50c | 262.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.48 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 63c | 238.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 61c | 211.9$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 47c | 211.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 32c | 203.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Under | 75c | 195.73$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 46c | 179.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 62c | 161.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed Under | 78c | 160$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 49c | 123.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…2fefbacked Under | 22c | 123.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 34c | 96.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 32c | 69.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 27c | 59.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 56c | 53.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Under | 54c | 53.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 57c | 35.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…eed8backed Over | 77c | 34.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 41c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 69c | 33.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…6c08backed Under | 60c | 21.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 4.5this page
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: FK Dynama-Minsk 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: FK Dynama-Minsk O/U 1.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: FK Dynama-Minsk O/U 2.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 0.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 1.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 2.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 3.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: FK Dynama-Minsk (-1.5)FK Dynama-Minsk won
- Spread: FK Dynama-Minsk (-2.5)Neftçi PFK won
- Spread: Neftçi PFK (-2.5)FK Dynama-Minsk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.