Europa Conference League · resolved market
Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c6a41ba57571ffe409c1ed4e38442844590feb0a82947abf39ce8de97143d9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 41c | 4,935$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.92 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 41c | 2,961$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.35 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 60c | 2,132$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.55 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 60c | 1,622$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.52 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 57c | 1,258$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.62 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 38c | 1,251$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.89 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 60c | 1,092$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.3 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 22c | 1,056$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.14 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 41c | 867.13$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.33 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 58c | 837.88$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.97 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 695$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.85 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 59c | 631.97$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.04 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 59c | 507.45$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.4 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 69c | 498.75$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 60c | 469.17$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.49 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 347.46$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.08 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 19c | 245.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…0bb6backed Over | 39c | 221.78$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 61c | 221.19$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.03 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 21c | 185.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 59c | 179.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 61c | 163.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…14d1backed Over | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…85c8backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Under | 63c | 98.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…384fbacked Over | 41c | 73.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.42per pick | 45cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 38c | 67.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 40c | 62.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 59c | 58.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Under | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked Under | 59c | 50.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…4817backed Over | 41c | 48.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc79c…73fbbacked Under | 62c | 48.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…3546backed Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…825cbacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Under | 60c | 32.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Under | 32c | 31.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 59c | 25.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 76c | 24.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over | 67c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 2.5this page
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: FK Dynama-Minsk 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: FK Dynama-Minsk O/U 1.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: FK Dynama-Minsk O/U 2.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 0.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 1.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 3.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 4.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: FK Dynama-Minsk (-1.5)FK Dynama-Minsk won
- Spread: FK Dynama-Minsk (-2.5)Neftçi PFK won
- Spread: Neftçi PFK (-2.5)FK Dynama-Minsk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.