Europa Conference League · resolved market
Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7f2818a7313709e0747baf64738157ec01dd019d67551895ca9679e166a66c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 61c | 2,473$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 66c | 2,249$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.11 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 1,910$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.96 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…c8e9backed Under | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 1,432$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Over | 72c | 815.99$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.78 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Over | 18c | 783.79$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.72 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 63c | 513.84$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.94 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 67c | 400.2$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 42 | 90.5%38 W · 4 L | +10.6wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed Under | 60c | 392.59$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 49c | 383.85$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.79 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 26c | 380.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 69c | 337.07$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.49 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 69c | 284.08$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…545bbacked Under | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 63c | 222.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 39c | 194.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 39c | 176.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 38c | 165.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…bf2ebacked Under | 26c | 153.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 37c | 147.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Over | 69c | 143.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +198.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 19c | 127.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…3efbbacked Over | 17c | 111.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 70c | 109$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…0d9cbacked Over | 74c | 96.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 57c | 63.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 34c | 54.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…eed8backed Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 63c | 49.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Over | 40c | 36.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Under | 43c | 24.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 56c | 23.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…a73abacked Over | 69c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 5.5this page
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: FK Dynama-Minsk 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: FK Dynama-Minsk O/U 1.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: FK Dynama-Minsk O/U 2.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 0.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 1.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 2.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 3.5Over won
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FK Dynama-Minsk (-1.5)FK Dynama-Minsk won
- Spread: FK Dynama-Minsk (-2.5)Neftçi PFK won
- Spread: Neftçi PFK (-2.5)FK Dynama-Minsk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.