WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 168.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb43ba0103c9ffd0203f7dd53cd3b83200883520fbba41e99fa6bc99f9bbd1769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 5,476$2,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,803.86 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 4,389$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.29 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 52c | 2,500$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 667$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.33 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 641.75$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.05 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Over | 44c | 319.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 49c | 281.84$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 8c | 221$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 8c | 210.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 50c | 100.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 59c | 68.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 51c | 30.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 42c | 26.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 72c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 168.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 167.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.