WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11e17cd04c21a550e6ab4e23af8ea494659ef652e276241a20963a14a563dc36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Atlanta Dream, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 10,000$5,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,906.5 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 7,450$3,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,652.9 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 2,360$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.38 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,554$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.85 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Atlanta Dream | 46c | 900$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 633.9$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.29 | 279 | 49.1%137 W · 142 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…b283backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 346.15$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 251$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab2…8fdabacked Atlanta Dream | 51c | 249.8$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 217$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 184.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 657 | 51.4%338 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 143$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Atlanta Dream | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 77c | 81.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7d40backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 49.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286c…f34ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 32.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 21.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 20.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5079…e560backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 167.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 168.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.