Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb43f6bba41fd0711af9dff0f26ef153779923ff7e38eebb4bd529d77b8f6dc94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 31c | 750.11$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.92 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 393.27$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 65c | 260.47$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.69 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 212$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.92 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 194.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 174.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 25c | 167.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 124.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 35c | 116.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 102.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 42c | 101.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 60c | 99.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 48c | 93.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 87.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 46c | 84.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 65c | 79.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 64c | 78.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 41c | 73.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 72.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 62c | 71.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 35c | 69.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 35c | 68.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 67.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 64.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 73c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 55.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 35c | 47.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 28c | 46.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 46c | 45.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 32c | 44.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 37c | 43.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 43.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 39c | 39.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 37.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed Yes | 57c | 36.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 51c | 33.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 32.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 65c | 31.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 36c | 29.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 28.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 77c | 27.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 48c | 27.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 25.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 65c | 21.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 60c | 21.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 51c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 19.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.