NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4400abd24f8d140af312d21b91ea64ad047d8da9ea0ac1c432fe9c670a281c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Rockets, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac25…433fbacked Rockets | 59c | 20,040$11,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,823.75 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 42c | 11,723$4,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,834.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 40c | 7,791$3,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,674.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs | 42c | 954.73$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.75 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockets | 59c | 351.16$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.76 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Rockets | 56c | 310.89$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Spurs | 43c | 169.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Rockets | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…4720backed Rockets | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Spurs | 42c | 79.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Rockets | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Spurs | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 426 | 40.4%172 W · 254 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…6344backed Spurs | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…94a4backed Rockets | 58c | 51.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Spurs | 42c | 51.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Spurs | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…a69fbacked Spurs | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Spurs | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Rockets | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Spurs | 40c | 32.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c28…bc2cbacked Rockets | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)this page
- Rockets vs. SpursSpurs won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.