NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47e14217a82e62649b17fb6b81ad7ddacf3a359e5f34e5806bc410a77216cfc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Under | 55c | 1,674$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.6 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 55c | 499.98$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 55c | 499.97$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…8852backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 54c | 412.12$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.84 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 45c | 282.22$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.22 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…11f4backed Over | 46c | 277$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…200ebacked Over | 45c | 223.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 45c | 138$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Under | 56c | 114$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 44c | 113.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 113.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 426 | 40.4%172 W · 254 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Over | 45c | 93.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4797…2382backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…e6b7backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 69c | 72.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Over | 44c | 53.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Over | 40c | 51.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Under | 23c | 47.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…2414backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb115…cd61backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 41c | 42.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…fea4backed Over | 45c | 39.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658a…3b89backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…5ab0backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…1524backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b9d4backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…a080backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…7659backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…03efbacked Over | 50c | 30.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Under | 55c | 30.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…cebcbacked Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c28…bc2cbacked Over | 45c | 22.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5this page
- Rockets vs. SpursSpurs won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.