CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb44b6c254628b7ab220eb2dd00ee976ed9276344c203eb65ed811c1a575a5fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemigaof Nemiga, Black Phoenix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4959…f2d0backed Nemiga | 56c | 1,188$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.64 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc805…2cfcbacked Nemiga | 52c | 1,025$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Black Phoenix | 49c | 738.12$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.17 | 8,133 | 50.3%4,091 W · 4,042 L | +169.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Black Phoenix | 42c | 464.47$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.31 | 367 | 44.4%163 W · 204 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84d…cc32backed Nemiga | 61c | 421$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.19 | 343 | 48.4%166 W · 177 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Black Phoenix | 39c | 410.51$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 1,346 | 44.1%594 W · 752 L | +45.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…b792backed Black Phoenix | 45c | 398.2$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.19 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c2…6338backed Nemiga | 58c | 389.12$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Black Phoenix | 45c | 294$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 240 | 32.5%78 W · 162 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…6edfbacked Black Phoenix | 45c | 291$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.95 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Black Phoenix | 45c | 232.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 2,749 | 47.6%1,309 W · 1,440 L | -37.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Black Phoenix | 49c | 209.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 1,502 | 39.1%587 W · 915 L | -41.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Black Phoenix | 39c | 175.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa91a…ddacbacked Nemiga | 57c | 169.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nemiga | 61c | 156.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 2,500 | 44.6%1,115 W · 1,385 L | -67.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Black Phoenix | 45c | 151.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 742 | 51.1%379 W · 363 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…4414backed Nemiga | 55c | 149.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nemiga | 53c | 107.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 693 | 48.2%334 W · 359 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Black Phoenix | 52c | 82.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 1,995 | 47.5%948 W · 1,047 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Nemiga | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 356 | 44.4%158 W · 198 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Black Phoenix | 45c | 63.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Nemiga | 54c | 50.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Nemiga | 53c | 49.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Black Phoenix | 37c | 38.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Nemiga | 53c | 32.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Black Phoenix | 47c | 32.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Nemiga | 55c | 30.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 456 | 63.8%291 W · 165 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Nemiga | 59c | 30.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 534 | 49.6%265 W · 269 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Black Phoenix | 50c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Nemiga | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #7 PlayoffsNemiga won
- Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Black Phoenix - Map 1 WinnerNemiga won
- Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 WinnerNemiga won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.