Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb45dd6940a77f59075d66f6d25240851531a5cf4b16e3a6aff4381558f0a64fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x285e…f38cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,757$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.76 | 64 | 14.1%9 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 61c | 1,700$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.4 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 900$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 21c | 848.4$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.7 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked Yes | 49c | 617.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 74c | 415.13$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…b61ebacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 19c | 243.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…267dbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 36c | 186.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…3c34backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…5c33backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed No | 51c | 99.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…bc25backed No | 69c | 45.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 43c | 45.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 8?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on June 8?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.