MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb471174eda26f6f9f094f8dca154acf16ec824baccb64f7fbaad5209c78f2f4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 999.95$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 21c | 977.55$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.63 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Over | 59c | 832.05$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.47 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 46c | 767.37$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.84 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 746.64$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 67c | 735$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 684.02$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.07 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…b1a1backed Over | 47c | 571.65$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 493.59$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 54c | 393.58$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.6 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 380.48$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.04 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 339$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 328.22$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 34c | 223$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Under | 44c | 200.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 40c | 190.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 57c | 158.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 57c | 158.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Over | 57c | 158.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 57c | 158.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 57c | 158.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 57c | 158.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 57c | 158.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 57c | 155.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 57c | 155.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 43c | 99.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 31c | 98.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 39c | 96.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…c9b5backed Under | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 55c | 75.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 57c | 68.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Over | 57c | 63.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 36c | 62.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 57c | 40.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 43c | 40.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Under | 44c | 39.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 57c | 38.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…6b2cbacked Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 49c | 28.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 57c | 22.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 57c | 19.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco GiantsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.