Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb472a46277649df87b37b22aa4af8d6139174eff31a147bb4e9d23e75cf4530d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 899.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.41 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked MOUZ | 65c | 574.06$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.21 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.56 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed MOUZ | 64c | 513.78$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.19 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed MOUZ | 65c | 385.99$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 327.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.02 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed MOUZ | 66c | 319.41$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.81 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ | 65c | 287.32$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.19 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f7…71d2backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 218$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked MOUZ | 65c | 218$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 189.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.59 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked MOUZ | 64c | 123.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed MOUZ | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 117.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed MOUZ | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed MOUZ | 65c | 85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e11…d36ebacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked MOUZ | 67c | 51.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed MOUZ | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked MOUZ | 43c | 45.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed MOUZ | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed MOUZ | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed MOUZ | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed MOUZ | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 148 | 68.9%102 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.