TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$388,637
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$448,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $388,637 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed MOUZ43c65,767$28,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,3001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere45c10,643$4,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,862.631,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere55c10,373$5,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,662.471143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked MOUZ49c9,791$4,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8241,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed MOUZ55c9,128$5,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,042.7996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Natus Vincere54c8,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,679.9753652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere51c7,752$3,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,777.071,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere53c7,100$3,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,370.251,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere51c6,742$3,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.821,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Natus Vincere56c6,123$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.3639343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere50c4,485$2,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.161,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Natus Vincere68c4,273$2,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.9145352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Natus Vincere61c4,254$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.5853764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Natus Vincere45c4,117$1,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,265.4754246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Natus Vincere49c3,967$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,006.6750850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ49c3,100$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.9228341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Natus Vincere56c3,050$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.7889741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed MOUZ45c3,000$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.9437655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Natus Vincere56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32015144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Natus Vincere51c2,996$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.321,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed MOUZ46c2,925$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.0571454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Natus Vincere51c2,726$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.1910051%51 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x910e…29bcbacked MOUZ45c2,627$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.575147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked MOUZ44c2,604$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.0424246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Natus Vincere67c2,503$1,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.1451140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere55c2,468$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.321,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Natus Vincere54c2,450$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12134442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed MOUZ45c2,363$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.2831248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed MOUZ30c2,334$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.3269132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18f0…3d5ebacked Natus Vincere54c2,159$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.563644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked MOUZ74c2,120$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.8712764.6%82 W · 45 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked MOUZ27c2,091$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.8732549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked MOUZ44c1,982$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.1695342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked MOUZ46c1,850$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.473647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked MOUZ54c1,835$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.5112141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed Natus Vincere56c1,800$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.5424255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Natus Vincere43c1,788$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.6550832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…698cbacked Natus Vincere57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.397652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Natus Vincere53c1,747$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.0421146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Natus Vincere58c1,718$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.950769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked MOUZ42c1,692$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.321,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed MOUZ27c1,621$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43319251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Natus Vincere49c1,589$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.639340.9%38 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Natus Vincere56c1,545$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.9519643.9%86 W · 110 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere51c1,427$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.432,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed MOUZ39c1,400$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5393938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ62c1,374$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.561,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed MOUZ53c1,347$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.6221158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Natus Vincere53c1,346$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.8886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked Natus Vincere50c1,257$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.923850%19 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3f…6deebacked MOUZ45c1,250$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.52055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Natus Vincere51c1,184$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.9326247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked MOUZ45c1,114$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.6931936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked Natus Vincere57c1,083$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.3113647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Natus Vincere50c1,054$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.5337047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ54c1,021$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.841,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Natus Vincere33c999.96$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.9769835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed MOUZ43c992.98$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.9827737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed MOUZ51c961.37$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.5133041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere33c922.98$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.1493546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Natus Vincere63c900.27$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.5215150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Natus Vincere45c896.46$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.0891553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ49c887.07$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.2755251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Natus Vincere34c849.99$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed MOUZ73c805.99$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.388040%32 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed MOUZ47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37631547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere41c800$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47279859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Natus Vincere65c799.99$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc13b…87bdbacked Natus Vincere68c732.83$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.834736.2%17 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9548…78d6backed Natus Vincere50c706.92$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.02977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick47cpaid+71.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked MOUZ46c706$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3231055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere53c699.99$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33151364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Natus Vincere55c680.49$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.2233867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked Natus Vincere50c664.32$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.3212253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7217…54f6backed MOUZ8c633.96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1610153.5%54 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Natus Vincere33c627.4$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.42334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Natus Vincere27c626$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.9835737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed MOUZ45c608.34$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.7526540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Natus Vincere23c599.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.9915639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere47c590$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.7588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked MOUZ49c575.79$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.41,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed MOUZ45c555.43$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24858356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Natus Vincere49c542.01$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.937243.1%31 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Natus Vincere50c510$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f9b…bc2fbacked Natus Vincere59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.476762.7%42 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed MOUZ72c500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3607656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed MOUZ50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25025547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a3…a25ebacked MOUZ11c493.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Natus Vincere56c487.11$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.3315650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x219a…f65bbacked MOUZ66c477.34$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3133435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed MOUZ10c471.66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.633323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Natus Vincere51c470$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.1742053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked MOUZ43c466.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20048843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere55c466.35$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.6892056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Natus Vincere54c448.84$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.6548054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Natus Vincere55c419.09$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.0913148.1%63 W · 68 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde5…d1acbacked MOUZ47c418.23$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.579949.5%49 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Natus Vincere57c413.4$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9641632.7%136 W · 280 L-37.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Natus Vincere60c410.57$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.231,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed Natus Vincere54c406.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.2131865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.