Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f55444c53cddc71d27c6aa5ba8cb1c5713a8a9c99f70ad82f20df5e9095241
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $388,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $448,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $388,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed MOUZ | 43c | 65,767$28,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,300 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 10,643$4,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,862.63 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 10,373$5,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,662.4 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked MOUZ | 49c | 9,791$4,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,824 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed MOUZ | 55c | 9,128$5,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,042.79 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 8,000$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,679.97 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 7,752$3,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,777.07 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 7,100$3,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,370.25 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 6,742$3,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,333.82 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 6,123$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,723.36 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 4,485$2,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,223.16 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 4,273$2,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.91 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 4,254$2,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.58 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 4,117$1,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.47 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 3,967$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.67 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ | 49c | 3,100$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.92 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 3,050$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.78 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed MOUZ | 45c | 3,000$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.94 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 2,996$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.32 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed MOUZ | 46c | 2,925$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.05 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…cc01backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 2,726$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.19 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked MOUZ | 45c | 2,627$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.57 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…b46bbacked MOUZ | 44c | 2,604$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.04 | 242 | 46.7%113 W · 129 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 2,503$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.14 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 2,468$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.32 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 2,450$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed MOUZ | 45c | 2,363$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.28 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed MOUZ | 30c | 2,334$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.32 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f0…3d5ebacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 2,159$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.56 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked MOUZ | 74c | 2,120$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.87 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked MOUZ | 27c | 2,091$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.87 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked MOUZ | 44c | 1,982$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.16 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked MOUZ | 46c | 1,850$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.47 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2391…554fbacked MOUZ | 54c | 1,835$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.51 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…d1a4backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 1,800$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.54 | 242 | 55%133 W · 109 L | +14.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 1,788$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.65 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…698cbacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 1,747$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.04 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 1,718$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.9 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked MOUZ | 42c | 1,692$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.32 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed MOUZ | 27c | 1,621$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 1,589$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.63 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 1,545$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.95 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 1,427$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.43 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e4…7ba4backed MOUZ | 39c | 1,400$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ | 62c | 1,374$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.56 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…d152backed MOUZ | 53c | 1,347$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.62 | 211 | 58.3%123 W · 88 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 1,346$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.88 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…342dbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 1,257$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.92 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3f…6deebacked MOUZ | 45c | 1,250$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 1,184$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.93 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked MOUZ | 45c | 1,114$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.69 | 319 | 36.7%117 W · 202 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…348ebacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 1,083$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.31 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 1,054$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.53 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ | 54c | 1,021$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.84 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 999.96$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.97 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed MOUZ | 43c | 992.98$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.98 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed MOUZ | 51c | 961.37$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.51 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 922.98$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.14 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 900.27$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.52 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 896.46$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.08 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ | 49c | 887.07$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.27 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 849.99$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.5 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed MOUZ | 73c | 805.99$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.38 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…ae44backed MOUZ | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 315 | 47.6%150 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 800$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 799.99$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13b…87bdbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 732.83$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.83 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…78d6backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 706.92$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.02 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked MOUZ | 46c | 706$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.32 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 699.99$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 680.49$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.22 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e6…9c8abacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 664.32$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.32 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7217…54f6backed MOUZ | 8c | 633.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 627.4$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 626$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.98 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…6236backed MOUZ | 45c | 608.34$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.75 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f081backed Natus Vincere | 23c | 599.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.99 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 590$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.75 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MOUZ | 49c | 575.79$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.4 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed MOUZ | 45c | 555.43$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 542.01$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.93 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 510$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…bc2fbacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed MOUZ | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed MOUZ | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…a25ebacked MOUZ | 11c | 493.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…c7b2backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 487.11$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.33 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…f65bbacked MOUZ | 66c | 477.34$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed MOUZ | 10c | 471.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 470$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.17 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked MOUZ | 43c | 466.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 466.35$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.68 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 448.84$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.65 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 419.09$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.09 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…d1acbacked MOUZ | 47c | 418.23$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.57 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 413.4$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.96 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 410.57$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 406.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.21 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.