TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$648,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$748,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $648,288 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 414 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d20…a165backed MOUZ50c150,000$74,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,916.469733%32 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed MOUZ46c56,932$26,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere50c22,227$11,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,113.5545139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Natus Vincere54c18,000$9,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,369.9841944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Natus Vincere53c16,528$8,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,780.7843344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Natus Vincere55c13,290$7,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,023.597152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere54c11,839$6,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,469.4296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere54c11,230$6,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,159.9471143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b8…d1afbacked Natus Vincere54c8,000$4,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6601346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere51c7,799$3,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,818.451,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Natus Vincere56c7,538$4,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,286.7450832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Natus Vincere54c7,034$3,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,256.153652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Natus Vincere50c6,801$3,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,400.541242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere52c6,237$3,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,016.591,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Natus Vincere54c6,135$3,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,851.0831936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed Natus Vincere50c5,187$2,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.262948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Natus Vincere56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.9924246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Natus Vincere40c4,623$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,768.7325446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed MOUZ47c4,205$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.8653764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed MOUZ47c4,160$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.4393546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed Natus Vincere58c4,125$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.416058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere51c4,104$2,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.131,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed Natus Vincere63c3,968$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.0110075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere56c3,803$2,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.791,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Natus Vincere51c3,755$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.4822340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ce6…9469backed Natus Vincere54c3,708$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.891540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed MOUZ44c3,688$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.9319148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f14…ec62backed MOUZ46c3,525$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.91258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked MOUZ47c3,456$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.1289741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked MOUZ46c3,454$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.829257.6%53 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed MOUZ21c3,029$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.3769132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3762…1b2ebacked Natus Vincere52c3,000$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.53183.9%26 W · 5 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick67cpaid+25.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed MOUZ44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.993033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Natus Vincere63c2,980$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.9451140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere58c2,710$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.9879859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed Natus Vincere55c2,539$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.211551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c43…190dbacked Natus Vincere66c2,509$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Natus Vincere51c2,356$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.3151049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked MOUZ46c2,195$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.651,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked MOUZ48c2,060$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.0212141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Natus Vincere56c1,934$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.7815950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked MOUZ46c1,927$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.5650850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…46ddbacked Natus Vincere57c1,906$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.381546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed MOUZ45c1,902$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.2925150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Natus Vincere50c1,894$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94715639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Natus Vincere50c1,810$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.7834051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed MOUZ57c1,770$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.93151.6%16 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ46c1,689$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.7885851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked MOUZ62c1,672$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.46744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Natus Vincere79c1,652$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.434667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere53c1,644$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.2747046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Natus Vincere55c1,625$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.3715150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Natus Vincere55c1,588$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.8221158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked MOUZ43c1,557$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.675637.5%21 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed MOUZ4c1,521$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60375.4%2 W · 35 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda20…cb8dbacked Natus Vincere58c1,500$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6301625%4 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0e1…b9b4backed Natus Vincere67c1,482$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.099852%51 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Natus Vincere57c1,443$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.1660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Natus Vincere53c1,430$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.347243.1%31 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…698cbacked Natus Vincere58c1,427$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.267652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere50c1,418$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.22,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere54c1,398$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.281,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed MOUZ45c1,325$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.823956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Natus Vincere56c1,279$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.3125143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x219a…f65bbacked MOUZ47c1,275$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed MOUZ7c1,257$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.93323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Natus Vincere55c1,227$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.1433867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Natus Vincere58c1,223$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.6416147.2%76 W · 85 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Natus Vincere50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60016055.6%89 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked MOUZ40c1,187$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.361,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f0…9384backed Natus Vincere56c1,121$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.711442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed MOUZ55c1,118$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.8271454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Natus Vincere60c1,100$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43632756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Natus Vincere39c1,100$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere60c1,090$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.211,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ53c1,087$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.841,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Natus Vincere50c1,078$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53912065.8%79 W · 41 L+15.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked MOUZ47c1,050$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.531055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Natus Vincere47c1,043$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.3548057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Natus Vincere50c1,040$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.6445352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cde…96e2backed Natus Vincere50c1,036$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.072748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked Natus Vincere50c1,036$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.072857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Natus Vincere56c1,035$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.4725549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked Natus Vincere50c1,016$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5084544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed MOUZ43c1,005$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.1125547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Natus Vincere80c1,002$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.612060.8%73 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed MOUZ49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.921146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Natus Vincere50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed MOUZ1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Natus Vincere50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50033845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Natus Vincere54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Natus Vincere54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46016541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Natus Vincere62c998.05$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.5115051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed MOUZ47c975.08$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.2941056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Natus Vincere53c957$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.7915050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Natus Vincere54c940$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.427060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed MOUZ46c930.43$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.9528347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed Natus Vincere50c928.59$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.312548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Natus Vincere48c866.41$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.5833041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed MOUZ14c863.03$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.027733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.