Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb47cd8f08f739774aa08e74c9e9c0c722887bc9ef8cdd679732a6667ea0f50b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,313$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 43c | 437.77$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.41 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 64c | 300.09$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 282.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 43c | 225.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 214.04$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.77 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 52c | 139.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 134.21$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 53c | 131.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…f8f4backed Yes | 44c | 114.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 106$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ed…4da6backed Yes | 48c | 104.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 51c | 95.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 50c | 80.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 69.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…1c95backed Yes | 50c | 69.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 67.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked Yes | 50c | 59.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 51c | 58.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 48c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 55.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 50.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 51c | 49.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 45.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 51c | 37.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 34.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…c007backed Yes | 44c | 33.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…db52backed No | 59c | 33.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…e04cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516f…8352backed Yes | 55c | 29.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 26.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 25.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 62c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 23.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 23.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 18.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or below on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.