Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe9c35c987decfe6229e8b5fc7b3969349eaf3a398ae00ec3de2506ad5fa86b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 64c | 1,034$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.86 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 330.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 68c | 300.09$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.3 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 288$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 272.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 18c | 254.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 234$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 32c | 228.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 208.63$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.94 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 181.61$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 175.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 174.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 17c | 159$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 146.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 146.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 12c | 138.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 130.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 130.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 95.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 43c | 86.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 41c | 83.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 33c | 81.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 27c | 73.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 79c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 66.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 72c | 63.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 62.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 29c | 59.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes | 67c | 59.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 56c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 40c | 54.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 54.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 38c | 53.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 53.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 50.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 54c | 50.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 72c | 49.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 33c | 45.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 41c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 41c | 41.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 40.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 72c | 35.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…8c5bbacked No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 31.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…e04cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed Yes | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 23.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 23.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 23.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…db52backed No | 60c | 23.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 20.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 19.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 69c | 16.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 16.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or below on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.