TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,440
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,440 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes22c1,075$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.8930919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes5c1,028$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7628718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes13c959.81$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0740025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes17c747.81$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0623743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes3c613.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4252533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes10c585.8$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.285,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes7c550.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.391,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes7c531.48$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.757614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes11c476.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes19c386.71$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.472,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…4145backed Yes7c368.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.056716.4%11 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b34…8208backed Yes10c366.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.141127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c307.41$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No65c306.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes14c283.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2886226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes12c274.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6411938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7716…43b6backed Yes15c266$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93821.1%8 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07a…f97abacked Yes33c247.24$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1412717.3%22 W · 105 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8ee…5ba7backed Yes9c202.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.57837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+159.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…8f7abacked Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes5c189.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3565627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes8c185.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1920631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes28c183.7$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.299,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes35c183.12$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6665043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c182.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.772,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes33c180.87$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.22,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76bc…383cbacked Yes9c156.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.55450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+89.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c147.82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.462,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf8…760bbacked Yes38c146.41$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes19c141.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1858732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes27c133.55$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.243,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes23c120.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6953437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaab2…4c7abacked Yes29c117.02$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.391040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes32c108.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes11c101.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0f55…38aebacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes13c99.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9431124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb3…9ed6backed No80c98.13$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.63560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c5…785ebacked Yes24c97.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.093411.8%4 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes14c97.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7425239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes14c93.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5731442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed Yes20c92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.428839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes15c88.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0941046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4ecd…3923backed Yes22c88.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.392213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-80%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No74c87.07$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.521,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c86.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.221,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes38c85.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.084,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No67c84.48$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7534250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No65c78.73$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.712,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes26c78.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2416030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No67c78.15$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.961,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23e…2623backed Yes35c73.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.62755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes28c67.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5511129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes17c65.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8944945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes22c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.316234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes35c63.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.311650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes32c62.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0217033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No69c61.14$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.952,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c56.83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.051,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3310…545dbacked Yes19c56.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.542222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c52.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.99,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb69b…368ebacked No79c51.45$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.827560%165 W · 110 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1660739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00af…f0c2backed Yes21c49.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a99…1838backed No80c49.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.949770.1%68 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0675…1ec0backed No70c47.79$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.311656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No71c47.2$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6930859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No66c46.87$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No68c43.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7724768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No64c41.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No70c41.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3170770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c66…f4d3backed No68c35.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3224770%173 W · 74 L+1.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes35c34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.97037.1%26 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No78c31.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0112374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe06…d8d8backed Yes36c31.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.231145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No60c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.24,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05a…d78fbacked No78c27.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0112670.6%89 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No67c27.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.012,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No67c25.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.593837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No68c24.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9172837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4709…6366backed No62c22.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.661080%8 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No77c21.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0434970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…95c4backed No80c18.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.723775.7%28 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…ec06backed No78c14.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.231586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82ce…e92abacked No73c13.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7112467.7%84 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.