TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,583

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b7c…7f28backed No4c762.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.72842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes68c594.6$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.345,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No17c425.7$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1888628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No10c405.72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.782,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No41c359.21$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5766944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…4145backed No6c337.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.886716.4%11 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No12c327.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.191,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No24c320.92$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No37c311.53$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.983,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes41c307.16$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4740025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No65c306.24$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0681165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes41c292.34$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.523743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed No21c287.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.415236.2%55 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfe…846cbacked Yes51c280$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.361127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b37…2e48backed Yes50c272.41$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.147170.4%50 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+27.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes59c254.2$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0731124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes56c202.09$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.841,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f9…e901backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105413%7 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes29c191.38$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.8745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No16c183.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.577,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes53c179.81$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4850648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No6c168.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.343,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb9…901ebacked No65c164.98$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.625766.7%38 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes35c159.79$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.732,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes41c159.53$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.3642130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c141.24$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.192,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes49c138.43$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3263538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes57c129.54$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3525239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes35c126.35$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1345238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes75c112.87$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.037070%49 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c109.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.019,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes50c109.23$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes53c107.68$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7210845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c104.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed No21c104$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9612228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x178b…0c67backed Yes45c98.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.373330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes54c97.41$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.121,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes80c90.87$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.44235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes49c90.48$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5931442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes34c89.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e4…7b02backed Yes53c87.78$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No20c85.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0328718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No45c84.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4486420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No34c83.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.164,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes37c75.31$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5460739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes39c68.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.094,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes47c67.27$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.346823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes53c65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0534…5a8dbacked Yes67c64.11$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.261457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x812c…b81fbacked Yes51c63.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b34…8208backed No26c60.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.771127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No40c59.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.058955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed Yes55c57.69$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1710059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab2…4c7abacked Yes52c54.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.051040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes54c53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3841046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes37c51.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3452935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.55547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2127540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd54b…b008backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c04…3d8bbacked No48c49.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.249161.5%56 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes39c48.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2335133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes39c46.56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2665627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed Yes30c46.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.215346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes38c46.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4667633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb78b…c9eebacked Yes62c44.64$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.96683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick60cpaid+45.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No53c43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.713,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x108f…7136backed Yes50c41.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.834841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e95…b147backed Yes46c41.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No71c41.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5851…db4ebacked Yes46c40.89$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+84.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.87037.1%26 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes64c38.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8817536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5617…8c67backed No50c38.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.317518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes54c36.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7816030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x06c8…bdddbacked Yes44c36.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.46837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed Yes34c35.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7654857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9987…9014backed Yes51c35.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.68742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c35.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.863,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked No61c33.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5223549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes58c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8644945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes69c32.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No59c32.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1934151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes50c32.27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2944536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82b6…3db6backed Yes50c31.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.62040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes54c30.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8746240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes80c30.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.082231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-46.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes51c30.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.796553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c29.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No37c29.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No51c29.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9953547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes40c29.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.761,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No62c28.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.292,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d34…2f2bbacked Yes40c27.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No50c27.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5946444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabee…ab7dbacked No53c25.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.628360.2%50 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bd…9cd6backed Yes79c24.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.