TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,344
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,344 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes39c2,330$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.9630919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes53c584.88$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.5610845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes18c370.34$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.139747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes26c354.56$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.185,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No65c306.92$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4281165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed No68c237.15$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2231124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No65c207.8$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0388628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes60c195.11$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No57c173.88$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1466944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes17c164.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.651,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes22c152.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0193837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9987…9014backed Yes40c148.83$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.67742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes23c143.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4950648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x693c…d079backed No70c138.85$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.962839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c129.13$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.942,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes30c118.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1725239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No63c110.42$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.533,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes13c106.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0223743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes13c105.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2140025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes15c101.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x901f…64f0backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413133.6%44 W · 87 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x993c…8f7abacked No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1216234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes14c98.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2249038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed No80c97.95$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0635465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes16c88.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdadc…f9d8backed Yes15c82.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.35120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x108f…7136backed Yes16c81.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.824841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c77.6$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.79,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes51c75.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No51c73.05$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.441,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked No73c72.95$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c72.83$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes30c72.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.591,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb740…eabbbacked Yes14c71.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0723923.4%56 W · 183 L-17.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c67.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.067,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes27c67.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9931442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No45c65.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9253547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes17c64.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1135133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab2…4c7abacked Yes41c62.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.771040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No54c60.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2199962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3310…545dbacked Yes18c59.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c59.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4115…6af1backed Yes66c59.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No50c58.48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.413,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed No53c54.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7415236.2%55 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb9…901ebacked No60c53.03$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.165766.7%38 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a72…9d77backed Yes19c52.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72e5…6412backed Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1815749.7%78 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd660…865abacked Yes24c48.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed No44c48.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3965627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No50c45.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No52c44.81$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.417355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No61c44.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.438955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed No49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No77c39.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.011,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed No79c37.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.893941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No53c35.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6982268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No55c34.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5254857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.921,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a58…8611backed Yes35c32.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe7…33d8backed Yes61c31.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.221040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes46c30.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes45c28.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7844536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No74c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.284,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes53c27.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2952444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1181…030dbacked No80c24.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.921361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d34…2f2bbacked No78c24.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No78c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.282,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x116b…efbcbacked Yes43c23.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd731…4199backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59273.9%68 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed No51c19.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5811956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes53c19.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3210745.8%49 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2846…f71bbacked No79c17.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.65366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1183…f754backed No67c16.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.