Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4a13a0d348186fe90760fe1c15989bb9a79f8fcd3fd2e257e02db5693f2d1ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 30c | 740.44$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 551.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 65c | 390.92$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 55c | 389.26$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.19 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 288.96$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 59c | 205.35$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 179.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 162.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 10c | 162.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 135.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 47c | 133.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 41c | 128.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 54c | 113.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 34c | 112.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 34c | 111.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 44c | 110.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 75c | 102.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 43c | 98.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 25c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 95.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 65c | 94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 43c | 93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 91.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 62c | 76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 71.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83e…c0b5backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 49c | 69.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 52c | 64.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 55c | 54.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 63c | 52.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 50c | 39.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…319dbacked Yes | 39c | 38.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 40c | 38.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 37.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 35.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 34.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed Yes | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 58c | 31.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 26.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed1…34d9backed Yes | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 63c | 23.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 61c | 20.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 67c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.