Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b8eb881e6d59d80a82dc19169823a1b1199ee028d77af936c6919cc42136e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 74c | 404.11$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 73c | 398.66$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 287.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 69c | 210.23$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 16c | 187.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 185.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 28c | 144.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 68c | 142.09$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 130.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 107.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 101.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 32c | 99.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 61c | 90.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 89.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 25c | 88.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 78.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 70c | 78.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 34c | 74.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 72.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 72.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 73c | 72.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 70.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 69.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 27c | 69.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 27c | 66.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 63.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 46c | 60.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 56.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 26c | 50.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 33c | 50.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 29c | 47.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 47.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 47.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 53c | 42.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…3e71backed No | 80c | 41.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 53c | 40.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 75c | 38.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 72c | 36.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 38c | 32.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 75c | 29.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 28.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 72c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ca28backed Yes | 74c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 23.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 70c | 23.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cdecbacked No | 73c | 21.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 66c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 19.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.