NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4bf82f015792467db13d4f434a0563568a93c08ab05db2367f86298cb1101fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,014$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.73 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 51c | 781.63$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.63 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 428.46$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 230$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 51c | 230$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…1ae1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 230 | 43%99 W · 131 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Over | 49c | 196.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…2348backed Under | 52c | 189.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 51c | 129.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Over | 51c | 117.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 117$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…d6bebacked Over | 51c | 91.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0622backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0834…609fbacked Over | 51c | 23.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 49c | 22.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5this page
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Trail Blazers vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.