Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4ce588f4ca96dfd4365cd756323ace916957e507296d78d2e94e22c6dc4e618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Team Falcons | 37c | 4,274$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,692.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Team Spirit | 68c | 3,190$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.27 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…204cbacked Team Falcons | 32c | 2,890$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.18 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Team Spirit | 36c | 1,732$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.25 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04b…f09bbacked Team Spirit | 63c | 1,533$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.93 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…6e77backed Team Spirit | 63c | 1,200$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Team Spirit | 63c | 1,167$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.33 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Team Spirit | 63c | 362.24$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.21 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…d1a4backed Team Falcons | 39c | 243.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.43 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f3c6backed Team Spirit | 71c | 214.22$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.27 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 204.16$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc793…f66fbacked Team Falcons | 39c | 188.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Spirit | 34c | 165.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Team Falcons | 65c | 151.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Team Spirit | 62c | 85.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…1a70backed Team Falcons | 63c | 81.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Team Spirit | 49c | 44.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Team Falcons | 46c | 44.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Team Falcons | 51c | 40.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Team Spirit | 51c | 34.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Spirit | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Team Falcons | 51c | 20.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8064…8a15backed Team Spirit | 58c | 19.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.