TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$453,323
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$573,074

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $453,323 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec92…6b59backed Team Spirit2c49,904$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.541216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Spirit36c35,973$13,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,11036041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons64c33,866$21,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,346.831,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Spirit37c21,047$7,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,780.1342650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Spirit36c18,195$6,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,509.489440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Team Falcons67c16,162$10,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,381.643154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x733b…7260backed Team Falcons68c13,010$8,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,183.352483.3%20 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Spirit37c12,966$4,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,755.5917452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9273…fcf8backed Team Falcons63c10,254$6,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,794.041442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Spirit35c9,452$3,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,337.4543049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Team Spirit40c7,907$3,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.3533746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Team Falcons63c7,756$4,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.887058.6%41 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit18c6,709$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.361,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Team Spirit36c5,952$2,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,117.4612630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Team Falcons64c5,738$3,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,074.929555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e7…68d2backed Team Falcons63c5,352$3,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.06650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Team Spirit33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65017651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Falcons59c4,874$2,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.4223653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked Team Falcons63c4,640$2,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.858959.6%53 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Team Falcons64c3,995$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.1315950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Spirit25c3,935$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.531,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit25c3,772$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.791,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Spirit10c3,527$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.4196645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe84a…702dbacked Team Falcons65c3,180$2,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.1315949.7%79 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Team Spirit27c3,174$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.7938855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Spirit36c3,165$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.2834544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Falcons65c3,004$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.629160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Spirit34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Spirit34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Falcons64c2,822$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.986553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Team Spirit35c2,691$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.788641.9%36 W · 50 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60c3…5947backed Team Spirit18c2,662$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.361926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Spirit34c2,500$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit14c2,374$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.921,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Team Spirit12c2,156$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.8552046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Team Falcons65c2,119$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.439650%48 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Falcons63c2,057$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.122,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Team Falcons64c1,978$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.062552%13 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Spirit35c1,896$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.7247046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf8…2f4abacked Team Falcons63c1,853$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.675034%17 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Team Spirit18c1,853$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.96725.4%17 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons79c1,842$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.6977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Team Spirit1c1,780$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.29561.8%1 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-77%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Team Falcons64c1,755$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.899946.5%46 W · 53 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked Team Spirit27c1,570$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.5210618.9%20 W · 86 L-14.0wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4bb3…b70fbacked Team Spirit18c1,542$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.632119%4 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-46.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd99…c06cbacked Team Falcons64c1,478$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.052166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons66c1,469$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.680443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa90…6b3abacked Team Spirit37c1,430$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.211947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Team Spirit23c1,414$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.0220740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Team Spirit36c1,400$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50433541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Team Spirit35c1,337$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.0118954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5df…be7cbacked Team Spirit27c1,219$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.529428.7%27 W · 67 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Team Spirit34c1,200$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4089850%49 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Spirit17c1,198$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0367043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Falcons64c1,146$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.5711547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Spirit34c1,127$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.2488539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Team Spirit35c1,079$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.5116842.9%72 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Team Falcons69c1,067$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.4922363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit34c1,058$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.691,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Team Spirit31c1,010$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.38728.7%25 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Spirit33c999.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33085851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe647…2040backed Team Falcons67c950.94$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.812653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Team Spirit32c949.97$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.118544.9%83 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Spirit23c940.55$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0337832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Team Spirit32c935.75$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.237223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Team Falcons64c874.38$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.7835461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Team Falcons63c817.94$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.6417047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Spirit36c801.33$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4848539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Team Spirit15c794.89$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.551140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Team Falcons66c776.04$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.853228.1%9 W · 23 L-10.4wins-0.33per pick61cpaid-57.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xb4c2…a16ebacked Team Falcons77c769.89$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.6538167.2%256 W · 125 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Team Spirit18c760.64$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9223342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed Team Falcons65c753.08$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.589754.6%53 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da2…8c2bbacked Team Falcons66c747.46$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.1410966.1%72 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Falcons66c742.12$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.3220367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Spirit11c739.29$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3250749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Team Spirit28c736.74$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1930647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Team Falcons67c708.88$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.357060%42 W · 28 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96a4…133ebacked Team Spirit34c702.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.151747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked Team Spirit36c700$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons77c682.74$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.272,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Spirit36c628.89$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.446240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed Team Spirit23c623.18$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0724955.4%138 W · 111 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a6…5270backed Team Falcons63c614.84$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+52.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed Team Spirit15c580.45$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1920535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Team Spirit36c550$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19812642.1%53 W · 73 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Spirit11c537.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.581,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Spirit17c526.26$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5358943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x595c…3b03backed Team Falcons66c520.2$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.710852.8%57 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Team Spirit37c520.11$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.444341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Spirit33c519.21$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3456243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Spirit26c516.96$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0156548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf592…9872backed Team Falcons67c512.04$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.972166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6aefbacked Team Falcons63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc105…c1b0backed Team Spirit17c499.97$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.991428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3375…ba50backed Team Falcons65c499.96$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.995154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdcb…b106backed Team Spirit13c482.02$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.741637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Team Spirit23c471.66$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6910833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24c6…4a55backed Team Spirit3c470.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.075525.5%14 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.