Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Georgia State Panthers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4cf714f306dc88905b23d71c0864a5419993b24bfc52663dc3729d59c838c73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Georgia State Panthersof Arkansas State Red Wolves, Georgia State Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc323…0171backed Georgia State Panthers | 42c | 5,023$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,909.83 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 43c | 2,895$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.1 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 65c | 1,804$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.48 | 186 | 54.3%101 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…81c2backed Georgia State Panthers | 36c | 1,429$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.39 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 63c | 1,062$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.93 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 49c | 780.93$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.21 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 730.4$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.48 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 65c | 682.71$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.24 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 63c | 384$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.44 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Georgia State Panthers | 37c | 338.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.41 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Georgia State Panthers | 62c | 327.94$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Georgia State Panthers | 28c | 322.92$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.22 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Georgia State Panthers | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 41c | 231.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 68c | 217$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 9c | 181.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 58c | 172.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 64c | 165.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 69c | 124.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ac…9955backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 15c | 95.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +15.0wins | +0.28per pick | 11cpaid | +213.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…1befbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 235 | 44.7%105 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 66c | 60.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…1e35backed Georgia State Panthers | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Georgia State Panthers | 37c | 42.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…69d0backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 68c | 35.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Georgia State Panthers | 58c | 33.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Georgia State Panthers | 35c | 32.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Georgia State Panthers | 35c | 31.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…e40bbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Georgia State Panthers | 47c | 27.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Georgia State Panthers | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…8b22backed Georgia State Panthers | 62c | 22.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57c…4afabacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 60c | 22.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…22efbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 64c | 16.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Georgia State Panthers | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Georgia State Panthersthis page
- Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Georgia State Panthers: O/U 155.5Over won
- Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Georgia State Panthers: O/U 157.5Over won
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-5.5)Georgia State Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.