TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Georgia State Panthers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Georgia State Panthersof Arkansas State Red Wolves, Georgia State Panthers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,235
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,235 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc323…0171backed Georgia State Panthers42c5,023$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,909.836543.1%28 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves43c2,895$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.15044%22 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Arkansas State Red Wolves65c1,804$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.4818654.3%101 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ec…81c2backed Georgia State Panthers36c1,429$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.398817%15 W · 73 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves63c1,062$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.931,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arkansas State Red Wolves49c780.93$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.211,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves57c730.4$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.4887047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves65c682.71$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.245,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Arkansas State Red Wolves63c384$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.4472248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Georgia State Panthers37c338.11$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.4194036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Georgia State Panthers62c327.94$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1242,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Georgia State Panthers28c322.92$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.221,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Georgia State Panthers35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1956149.2%30 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Arkansas State Red Wolves41c231.26$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.363,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Arkansas State Red Wolves68c217$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5814643.2%63 W · 83 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b3…7c36backed Arkansas State Red Wolves15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306016.7%10 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Arkansas State Red Wolves9c181.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.942,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Arkansas State Red Wolves58c172.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.92,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Arkansas State Red Wolves64c165.25$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7148051%245 W · 235 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves69c124.29$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.61,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55ac…9955backed Arkansas State Red Wolves15c95.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.345438.9%21 W · 33 L+15.0wins+0.28per pick11cpaid+213.8%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x3f49…1befbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125714%8 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick14cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves40c65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2623544.7%105 W · 130 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas State Red Wolves66c60.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.063,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fec…1e35backed Georgia State Panthers33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Georgia State Panthers37c42.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1466831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Arkansas State Red Wolves68c35.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Georgia State Panthers58c33.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.141,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Georgia State Panthers35c32.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.525,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Georgia State Panthers35c31.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2481453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd185…e40bbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves69c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Georgia State Panthers47c27.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.63,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x586d…fb12backed Georgia State Panthers76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3218557.8%107 W · 78 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4df…8b22backed Georgia State Panthers62c22.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc57c…4afabacked Arkansas State Red Wolves60c22.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2734…22efbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves51c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.197254.2%39 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves64c16.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.478341%34 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6271…4ac6backed Georgia State Panthers78c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.864553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.