TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will $Mog be listed first on Binance?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$269,524
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$458,156

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,524 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4a2a…559abacked Yes0c5,850$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes4c5,070$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2142524%6 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c4,575$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7110521.9%23 W · 82 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-44.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes4c3,963$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.97919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x86f0…f232backed Yes4c2,212$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.03520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…e90dbacked Yes6c2,011$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid+465.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,659$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5833329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes1c1,226$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes4c1,190$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.221010%1 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+163.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf7…28bbbacked Yes5c919.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa475…01b8backed Yes9c697.96$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd316…bca3backed Yes11c628.01$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e8…0e89backed Yes2c625.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72d3…82f9backed Yes2c439.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16f…b703backed Yes4c414.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.552321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd848…626fbacked Yes5c292.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.291421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ce3…b625backed Yes5c280$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.141723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee8…7e06backed Yes5c220$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.341717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4640…7137backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4860%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes8c192.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.324422.7%10 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.