Token Launches · resolved market
Will $NEIRO be listed first on Binance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e6f8fd5ac30a99d24dbdb9f813e7b44859dcc977d596199bb33e1af27ed2656
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $294,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 5,623$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,713$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 2,908$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.08 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…c654backed Yes | 22c | 2,321$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,263$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fa…6277backed Yes | 3c | 2,005$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…6b02backed Yes | 9c | 1,796$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…858abacked Yes | 3c | 1,018$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb588…72dbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Yes | 6c | 820$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 2c | 702.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +163.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 689$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 5c | 595.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 35c | 549.27$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 514.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c7…1db8backed Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 3c | 302.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $NEIRO be listed first on Binance?this page
- Will $BITCOIN be listed first on Binance?No won
- Will $FWOG be listed first on Binance?No won
- Will $GOAT be listed first on Binance?No won
- Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance?No won
- Will $Mog be listed first on Binance?No won
- Will $POPCAT be listed first on Binance?No won
- Will none of the named coins be listed on Binance in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.