MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4f34df788584f58aac4d0cf718cc933aea79ca48e3785516974a9d5f42cb270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 42c | 1,760$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.21 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 57c | 1,418$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.74 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 893.97$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.34 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 57c | 528.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.19 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf50f…0586backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 292.09$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 57c | 175.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 57c | 141.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 97.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Over | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 51.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 41c | 47.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 42.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…34c0backed Over | 42c | 35.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 50c | 34.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 57c | 23.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…f516backed Under | 56c | 21.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 2.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.