MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x699a59fc3cef7f6fb3c31f74b08c018b76920c228e9e416f5897f8c7fbe907da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 55c | 2,192$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 40c | 2,183$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.99 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 64c | 325$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 78c | 302$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 45c | 284.46$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 231.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.52 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7b…46d3backed Athletics | 24c | 216$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Athletics | 48c | 208.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 182.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Athletics | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 160.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 144.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 115.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Athletics | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 77.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Athletics | 69c | 68.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 69c | 63.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Athletics | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 43.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Athletics | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 38.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Athletics | 71c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 28.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…eea0backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 28.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 80c | 20.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 19.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 2.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.