MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4b7ab11042d3f44f5316e36df0db68826eaae0d2d6824a5cefd0e9260f0a9f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof San Diego Padres, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 70c | 3,215$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 2,309$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.73 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 2,251$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.13 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 1,422$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.31 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 67c | 1,350$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 68c | 767.5$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Athletics | 70c | 428.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Athletics | 69c | 302.54$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 222.02$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed San Diego Padres | 20c | 199.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Athletics | 75c | 133.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed San Diego Padres | 24c | 123.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics | 74c | 105.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…d001backed San Diego Padres | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Athletics | 80c | 95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Athletics | 72c | 59.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 53.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Athletics | 68c | 53.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 44.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Athletics | 76c | 32.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Athletics | 80c | 32.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 77c | 30.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Athletics | 77c | 20.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Athletics | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Athletics | 80c | 16.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Athletics | 76c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 2.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.