Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4f6d40e90de789771f492e2b79066b58f634bbe0cf4a5e91878891bdeeb4c0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisville Cardinalsof Kentucky Wildcats, Louisville Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Kentucky Wildcats | 30c | 7,067$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,143.46 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Kentucky Wildcats | 31c | 6,065$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.07 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Louisville Cardinals | 70c | 5,717$4,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Louisville Cardinals | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Louisville Cardinals | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 30c | 2,725$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.06 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Kentucky Wildcats | 25c | 1,800$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Louisville Cardinals | 70c | 1,104$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.15 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…be02backed Kentucky Wildcats | 36c | 1,104$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Kentucky Wildcats | 9c | 1,100$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Louisville Cardinals | 70c | 996$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.8 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x350d…b898backed Kentucky Wildcats | 18c | 880.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Louisville Cardinals | 69c | 725.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.03 | 155 | 57.4%89 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Louisville Cardinals | 69c | 495.65$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.65 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Louisville Cardinals | 75c | 488.2$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 24c | 479.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 15c | 405$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d09…b4b5backed Kentucky Wildcats | 34c | 366.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…abc0backed Kentucky Wildcats | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8a…6870backed Kentucky Wildcats | 34c | 296.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Louisville Cardinals | 65c | 281.29$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…655cbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 34c | 235.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 73c | 229.48$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Kentucky Wildcats | 31c | 226.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Louisville Cardinals | 67c | 219$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Louisville Cardinals | 69c | 210$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb58e…3cd3backed Kentucky Wildcats | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Louisville Cardinals | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Louisville Cardinals | 75c | 175$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…aea1backed Kentucky Wildcats | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Louisville Cardinals | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kentucky Wildcats | 23c | 138.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Kentucky Wildcats | 12c | 126.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Kentucky Wildcats | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd294…ebddbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…a6e7backed Louisville Cardinals | 71c | 95.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Louisville Cardinals | 71c | 57.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Louisville Cardinals | 68c | 52.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 132 | 27.3%36 W · 96 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb812…076ebacked Louisville Cardinals | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1fa0backed Louisville Cardinals | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Louisville Cardinals | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.