TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Louisville Cardinalsof Kentucky Wildcats, Louisville Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,677 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Kentucky Wildcats30c7,067$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.4633438.9%130 W · 204 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Kentucky Wildcats31c6,065$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.075850%29 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Louisville Cardinals70c5,717$4,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Louisville Cardinals69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,55036944.2%163 W · 206 L-19.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Louisville Cardinals69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93022645.6%103 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kentucky Wildcats30c2,725$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.0612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Kentucky Wildcats25c1,800$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Louisville Cardinals70c1,104$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.151,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75a0…be02backed Kentucky Wildcats36c1,104$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+17%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Kentucky Wildcats9c1,100$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.121,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Louisville Cardinals70c996$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.812853.1%68 W · 60 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x350d…b898backed Kentucky Wildcats18c880.22$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Louisville Cardinals69c725.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.0315557.4%89 W · 66 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Louisville Cardinals69c495.65$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.6517650.6%89 W · 87 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Louisville Cardinals75c488.2$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.114037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Kentucky Wildcats24c479.14$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kentucky Wildcats15c405$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.771,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d09…b4b5backed Kentucky Wildcats34c366.68$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8005…abc0backed Kentucky Wildcats11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Kentucky Wildcats30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8a…6870backed Kentucky Wildcats34c296.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Louisville Cardinals65c281.29$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4515124.5%37 W · 114 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00c5…655cbacked Kentucky Wildcats34c235.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Louisville Cardinals73c229.48$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.11,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Kentucky Wildcats31c226.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.097143.7%31 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Louisville Cardinals67c219$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0645644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Louisville Cardinals69c210$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb58e…3cd3backed Kentucky Wildcats33c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Louisville Cardinals69c199.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6241554.2%225 W · 190 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ada…43b0backed Louisville Cardinals75c175$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.755570.9%39 W · 16 L+7.4wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x31ab…aea1backed Kentucky Wildcats31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28a8…57d5backed Louisville Cardinals70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kentucky Wildcats23c138.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.021,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Kentucky Wildcats12c126.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52807.5%6 W · 74 L-10.9wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-83.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Kentucky Wildcats11c125$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7525438.2%97 W · 157 L-14.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd294…ebddbacked Kentucky Wildcats12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3f75…a6e7backed Louisville Cardinals71c95.76$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…cfadbacked Louisville Cardinals71c57.45$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.662334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Louisville Cardinals68c52.78$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8913227.3%36 W · 96 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb812…076ebacked Louisville Cardinals68c44.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1fa0backed Louisville Cardinals70c32.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.861233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Louisville Cardinals70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.