MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb53f2f6277433c175fe9a15c8dac7ea42a0d7628ada09239f76827a75133b97c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 11,999$4,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 9,265$6,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,007.98 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 3,194$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 1,517$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.79 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 1,154$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 862.7$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.64 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 746.95$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.99 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 746.52$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.7 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 741$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.47 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Colorado Rockies | 65c | 462.48$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.47 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 448$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.68 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 405.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 252.42$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.48 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Colorado Rockies | 66c | 224.35$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.07 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 25c | 185.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Colorado Rockies | 65c | 182.23$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Colorado Rockies | 65c | 159.91$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 159$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 92.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Colorado Rockies | 66c | 89.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 82.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 74.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 71.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea94…0b53backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 37.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba9…1303backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 37.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Colorado Rockies | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Colorado Rockies | 64c | 19.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 16.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.