MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa71facb25cf2f24c65209673850df7fd5f5fa493be34d03946c52e8c5e2549b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 26,550$10,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,690.64 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 14,654$8,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,766.62 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 5,556$3,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.15 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 60c | 1,600$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.2 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 1,057$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.82 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 58c | 677$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.34 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 621.03$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.35 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 48c | 541$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.14 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 60c | 292.86$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.74 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 58c | 241$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 63c | 205.01$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 58c | 181.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 62c | 174.35$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 61c | 164.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 118$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 41c | 103.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 46c | 92.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 58c | 87.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Over | 58c | 74.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 65.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Under | 54c | 57.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 62c | 47.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 62c | 43.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 60c | 41.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 62c | 33.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Over | 64c | 26.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 62c | 25.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 61c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 62c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 62c | 23.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…deaebacked Over | 60c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed Over | 56c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 16.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.