Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb544a2f8453e069900453f7b98e245db1b49c1743c439f4f3ec2fd4b18e05470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Natus Vincere, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 1,596$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.8 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 1,529$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.12 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9c…bcfcbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 1,373$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 1,316$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.79 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 1,160$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.64 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 960.42$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.09 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 955.81$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.98 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 822.01$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.38 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 786.96$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.09 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 697.65$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.33 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 690.62$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.12 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 630.2$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.1 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 530$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 521.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.15 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 464.03$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.24 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf022…1ae9backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 440$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 436.65$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.18 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 412.9$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…d596backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 396.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.43 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 383.35$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.35 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 366.29$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Nigma Galaxy | 36c | 309.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.69 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 299.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 272.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.98 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 265.66$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.17 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 255.11$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.39 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 245.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 227.78$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 224.81$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 223.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Nigma Galaxy | 12c | 222.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.93 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 213.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.82 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nigma Galaxy | 16c | 212.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.12 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 197$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.11 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 194.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 194.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Nigma Galaxy | 18c | 183.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Nigma Galaxy | 36c | 174$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…2922backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 164.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 141.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 135$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bda…9b11backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 130.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 116.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 111$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…c180backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 108.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 89.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…60f1backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 82.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…b76ebacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 81.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 72.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 70.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…3b0abacked Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 63.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927b…3735backed Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 49.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…88d8backed Nigma Galaxy | 36c | 43.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ef…2855backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 40.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 35.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…030ebacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba78…273ebacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 29.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…747fbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 28.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 27.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 26.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 20.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 19.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 19.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.