TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,358
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,358 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x187b…f545backed Nigma Galaxy0c10,601$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked Natus Vincere56c2,485$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.393557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nigma Galaxy30c2,483$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.8973841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Nigma Galaxy19c2,097$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40033845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Nigma Galaxy44c1,653$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.1755157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Nigma Galaxy28c1,350$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.2934468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ff8…635fbacked Nigma Galaxy1c1,195$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Nigma Galaxy43c1,183$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.629047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy8c719.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Nigma Galaxy11c699.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7465625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Natus Vincere80c697.51$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9218075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2849…0cd8backed Natus Vincere60c521.95$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.891070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8df0…96a6backed Nigma Galaxy31c513.34$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.173847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Natus Vincere75c501$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.2525547.8%122 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere69c434.2$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.247660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere68c413.65$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.247748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.361,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Nigma Galaxy36c310$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.611346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Natus Vincere55c299.97$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.998854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked Natus Vincere62c299.88$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.955756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Nigma Galaxy19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Natus Vincere70c250$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7587645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Nigma Galaxy30c247.47$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2685851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed Natus Vincere69c219.56$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.069955.6%55 W · 44 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb3a…0338backed Natus Vincere75c207.44$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.366963.8%44 W · 25 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2d0…6078backed Natus Vincere71c207$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.534254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3664123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda12…38d6backed Natus Vincere54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925060%30 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa824…c9fcbacked Nigma Galaxy53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018053.3%96 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Natus Vincere69c184.91$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.686266.1%41 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked Natus Vincere75c182.43$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.432650%13 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed Nigma Galaxy29c171.43$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed Nigma Galaxy33c170$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5633743.6%147 W · 190 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a7…9725backed Nigma Galaxy9c160$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.13441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Natus Vincere54c157.58$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5855561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Natus Vincere67c149.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Natus Vincere71c142.89$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8910659.4%63 W · 43 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Natus Vincere52c142.31$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3123546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Natus Vincere70c141.43$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4320556.1%115 W · 90 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Nigma Galaxy17c141.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6438…255bbacked Natus Vincere76c131.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.462657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf2…6373backed Nigma Galaxy39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc7…066fbacked Nigma Galaxy19c125.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Nigma Galaxy17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.879343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb876…ae6ebacked Natus Vincere63c118.97$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.972850%14 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c8…97b4backed Natus Vincere60c114.45$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7815465.6%101 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Nigma Galaxy35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Nigma Galaxy32c107.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.546354.6%253 W · 210 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d06…88d8backed Nigma Galaxy29c103.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Natus Vincere66c100.33$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.113157.3%75 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Nigma Galaxy26c94.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0736054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x687c…8c91backed Nigma Galaxy50c91.03$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5214254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed Nigma Galaxy44c90.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012965.1%84 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Natus Vincere51c89.51$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8645061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064b…edb0backed Nigma Galaxy45c89.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Nigma Galaxy26c83.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7977458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaaf2…29d6backed Nigma Galaxy35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285236.5%19 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x562c…0be6backed Nigma Galaxy34c74.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc256…3b1cbacked Nigma Galaxy28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…3b0abacked Natus Vincere70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.433852.6%20 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Nigma Galaxy31c65.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.388037.5%30 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Natus Vincere46c65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.295841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Nigma Galaxy24c65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.463032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819f…ed88backed Nigma Galaxy30c63.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Nigma Galaxy37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.220530.7%63 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ef…2855backed Natus Vincere40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+138.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x83d0…c927backed Natus Vincere70c57.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.143743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked Natus Vincere66c56$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0416155.3%89 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Nigma Galaxy34c56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0452243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x425f…0f7abacked Nigma Galaxy45c51.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.218154.7%99 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9966…f991backed Nigma Galaxy26c48.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.641428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Nigma Galaxy54c48.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2616160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3adc…972dbacked Nigma Galaxy32c41.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.17580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Nigma Galaxy29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.68440.5%34 W · 50 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed Nigma Galaxy40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525255.2%139 W · 113 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Natus Vincere54c37.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3719443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a3f…38e4backed Natus Vincere54c36.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.92142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Nigma Galaxy42c34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a89…196fbacked Natus Vincere60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed Natus Vincere68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.612449.2%61 W · 63 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d03…b8a6backed Natus Vincere67c29.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7521465%139 W · 75 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca0…a27cbacked Natus Vincere70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.572766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Natus Vincere64c25.77$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3721062.4%131 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Natus Vincere80c25.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.024864.6%31 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8476backed Nigma Galaxy69c19.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.