Champions League · resolved market
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb55a61ed25c03cb1c2bf3529c595e15539129b8cea62b59e7bcda5ac9b6d3f13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a6…7401backed No | 62c | 1,367$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.93 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0e…abd1backed Yes | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 38c | 228.03$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x555b…c93dbacked Yes | 38c | 152.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df0…0bcfbacked No | 65c | 149.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 64c | 139.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes | 38c | 128.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…9c64backed Yes | 38c | 126.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…0934backed Yes | 36c | 125.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd74c…0bedbacked Yes | 38c | 124.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 64c | 119.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 63c | 81.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2080…d262backed Yes | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Yes | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 63c | 49.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 37c | 38.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…a02bbacked Yes | 38c | 35.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…35abbacked No | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Federico Valverde: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Harry Kane: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Jude Bellingham: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Kylian Mbappe: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Luis Diaz: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Nicolas Jackson: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Vinicius Junior: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.