Champions League · resolved market
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aaae8d5183197e2509d167fbe3433489a91ee610c2506ffc1968e6685ec4a7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 55c | 1,552$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.95 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 54c | 1,011$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.63 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Yes | 45c | 549.1$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.01 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Yes | 45c | 537.22$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.47 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…8320backed Yes | 49c | 484.7$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 55c | 404.4$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.13 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed No | 55c | 370.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 53c | 368.28$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.93 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c1…81a1backed Yes | 45c | 332.28$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…1eb0backed No | 54c | 311.52$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +363.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 46c | 302.05$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Yes | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…03a9backed Yes | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 62c | 191.18$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Yes | 47c | 190.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 54c | 180.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed No | 54c | 143.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…1dccbacked Yes | 44c | 128.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bb…f258backed Yes | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…2297backed Yes | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked No | 56c | 104.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…9c64backed Yes | 46c | 104.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed No | 55c | 104.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4250…51babacked Yes | 48c | 98.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 52c | 97.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 54c | 90.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 43c | 84.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Yes | 45c | 66.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…28abbacked Yes | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…a22bbacked Yes | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 46c | 62.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes | 46c | 62.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517f…ea2abacked Yes | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 55c | 60.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…6c25backed Yes | 45c | 52.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…a218backed Yes | 45c | 48.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbb…a8c2backed Yes | 45c | 48.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Yes | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 45c | 42.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…4e6abacked Yes | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Yes | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff0…b073backed Yes | 45c | 41.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…bb76backed Yes | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd557…416fbacked Yes | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fe…13f6backed Yes | 47c | 41.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Yes | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc32b…7e70backed Yes | 45c | 40.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 54c | 38.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 47c | 38.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c46…fe5ebacked Yes | 45c | 37.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…25afbacked Yes | 47c | 34.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed No | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 52c | 32.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f1…25f6backed Yes | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7c…ea1bbacked Yes | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0a…1584backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b5…8762backed Yes | 45c | 27.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…35abbacked No | 56c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed No | 56c | 24.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c3…49e9backed Yes | 48c | 21.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Federico Valverde: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Harry Kane: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Jude Bellingham: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Luis Diaz: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Michael Olise: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Nicolas Jackson: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Vinicius Junior: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.