Chess · resolved market
Will China win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb55cfbb0b0cf7a74cc5f2c59821b5c11430c7b04b51068bd726cdd1536f4be38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 2c | 1,854$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…d6ddbacked Yes | 18c | 1,652$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 5c | 1,525$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 14c | 909.81$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 871.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Yes | 14c | 744.06$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 14c | 633.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 14c | 457.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 3c | 363.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd82…2d20backed Yes | 16c | 321.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3b…2bf1backed Yes | 3c | 320.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 25c | 271$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 215$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 23c | 213.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b6…1370backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…33c1backed Yes | 17c | 101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…50e0backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 22c | 57.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will China win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?this page
- Will England win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?No won
- Will Germany win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?No won
- Will India win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?Yes won
- Will Iran win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?No won
- Will Netherlands win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?No won
- Will Norway win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?No won
- Will Poland win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?No won
- Will Uzbekistan win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?No won
- Will another team win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?No won
- Will the United States win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.