Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb55f1d4e93d82507f82d769f854b7df2f11daede0137a08d29d414befc959f9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 1c | 6,911$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 1,334$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.44 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 377.94$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 375.72$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 294.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 210.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 21c | 99.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 34c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 21c | 93.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 67c | 52.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 30.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 78c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on July 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.