Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa127c2b75c9cf71caefbbb111effeaee013dee76695a70945da112d68d542913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f43…53fabacked Yes | 0c | 24,539$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 1,717$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 569.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 384.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 24c | 350$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 325.9$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes | 32c | 313.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 78c | 290.94$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed Yes | 13c | 229.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…962cbacked No | 77c | 210.03$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 159.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…b472backed Yes | 36c | 154.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 152$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 149.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 148.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 117.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 112$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 25c | 107.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 70c | 96.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 94.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 26c | 94.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 82.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…2198backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 29c | 68.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…c6fdbacked No | 78c | 64.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 59.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 23c | 59.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 58.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 54.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed Yes | 26c | 50.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 49.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 48.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 48.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 42.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 28c | 39.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…8993backed No | 71c | 37.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 37.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 28c | 36.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…aa43backed No | 71c | 36.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 31.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 69c | 28.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 76c | 28.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 74c | 28.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 79c | 28.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 74c | 26.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 65c | 25.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 23.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 68c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 75c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on July 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.