Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35e39cd8fa63f3126bc159704db0db018f2ab614624a350d5eaba5bee28106d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 0c | 3,886$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 28c | 2,896$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 634.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 73c | 524.86$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.2 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 519.77$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 398.2$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 57c | 380$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 78c | 364.16$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 69c | 332.38$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 325.9$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 35c | 290.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 74c | 263.57$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 78c | 261.1$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 40c | 257.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 246.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 234.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 208.86$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 208.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 198.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 72c | 192.22$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 185.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 53c | 185$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 70c | 184.55$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 70c | 165.92$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 78c | 162.45$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 72c | 161.74$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 73c | 153.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 35c | 144.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 52c | 143.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 27c | 143.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.89 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 26c | 143.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 73c | 138.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 70c | 136.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 73c | 119.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 57c | 117.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 67c | 104.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 17c | 103.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 74c | 101.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 31c | 95.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 57c | 95.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked Yes | 28c | 86.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 71c | 86.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 82.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 72c | 79.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 43c | 73.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 72.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked No | 73c | 68.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 67.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 57c | 67.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 78c | 67.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 22c | 66.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 70c | 66.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 65.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 49c | 61.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 60c | 60.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 66c | 59.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 51c | 55.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 62c | 53.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 51c | 44.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 43.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca0…306ebacked No | 45c | 43.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac84…4dbabacked Yes | 54c | 43.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…a26bbacked No | 47c | 42.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 41.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 62c | 41.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 66c | 39.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 71c | 39.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 38.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 49c | 36.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 36.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 65c | 35.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 63c | 35.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…196bbacked No | 47c | 33.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 32.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed Yes | 73c | 31.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…f69fbacked Yes | 53c | 30.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 27.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 80c | 27.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 27.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 23.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 23.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…3235backed No | 45c | 22.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 46c | 22.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 73c | 21.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea9…2824backed Yes | 74c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 71c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.