TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Sabres vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Sabres, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$251,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$241,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,748 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x40e3…0787backed Sabres47c16,609$7,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,869.1332331.3%101 W · 222 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Lightning53c11,086$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,235.824457.4%140 W · 104 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Sabres10c9,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95013754%74 W · 63 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Lightning61c8,482$5,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,308.1344848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa10d…acc6backed Lightning71c3,381$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.315757.9%33 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Sabres32c3,033$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.232416.7%4 W · 20 L-4.5wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-61.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Lightning68c2,700$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86433652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Sabres32c2,403$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76986649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1187…cb53backed Sabres31c1,943$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.3311533%38 W · 77 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Sabres33c1,739$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.256163.9%39 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Sabres33c1,719$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.7572444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Lightning67c1,614$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.6831546.3%146 W · 169 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Sabres53c946.64$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Lightning57c933.44$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.4411051.8%57 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Sabres29c712.31$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.721,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning47c693.37$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.491,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Sabres8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021620.4%44 W · 172 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Sabres31c599$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6921048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…15eabacked Sabres31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1552927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Lightning69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15585148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning69c499.98$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15566951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Sabres33c463.24$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6892848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcda…aeefbacked Sabres33c393$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb99f…67e5backed Lightning67c393$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.69650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d4c…0327backed Lightning67c390$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc310…4d92backed Sabres33c389.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc420…3769backed Lightning67c388$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.04666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbda7…2f58backed Sabres33c388$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36b8…d3e7backed Lightning67c381$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde3f…7da7backed Sabres33c381$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.73728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e15…c621backed Sabres33c374$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a5…a0bcbacked Lightning67c374$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x101f…de6bbacked Lightning67c327$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc76…f6fdbacked Sabres33c327$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.91666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Sabres32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018136.5%66 W · 115 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dde…2f8fbacked Lightning67c309$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c2a…2eecbacked Sabres33c309$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.97520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fca…a099backed Sabres5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15525.8%3 W · 49 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-52.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd13d…3083backed Sabres33c296$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.68633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd66a…8e70backed Lightning67c296$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Sabres7c242.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1791334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Lightning68c224.15$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7349351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca43…6fd0backed Sabres33c222$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.262619.2%5 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b6b…bfecbacked Sabres31c199.81$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.942161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning42c188.23$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.73,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Sabres32c187.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1660549.3%298 W · 307 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Sabres6c165$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151895.3%10 W · 179 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf489…d482backed Lightning70c163.66$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.12166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e20…fd40backed Sabres16c160.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255429.6%16 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Sabres31c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466443.8%28 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff7e…697fbacked Lightning70c148.27$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.481546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.061,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd88f…8d2cbacked Lightning68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0613837.7%52 W · 86 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Lightning69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9316554.5%90 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a79…5adebacked Lightning70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.86580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Lightning70c140$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4214151.8%73 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Sabres30c117$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.137738.7%146 W · 231 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b14…d18cbacked Lightning70c110$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3311354%61 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning70c107.31$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.311,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d22…9d0cbacked Sabres32c106.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.192250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning67c104.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4357238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lightning68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3235154.1%190 W · 161 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3050857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9242…a3bdbacked Lightning67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+42.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd10a…91e9backed Lightning69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3126059.6%155 W · 105 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Sabres32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3228542.1%120 W · 165 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d8c…726cbacked Lightning68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328145.7%37 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b3…137fbacked Sabres33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…eb3fbacked Sabres52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Sabres31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3181846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x498d…16fbbacked Sabres32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c30…6429backed Lightning69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Sabres32c97.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0697651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f6…30f0backed Sabres33c91.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3de…12a5backed Sabres34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5725…0069backed Lightning69c82.45$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39cc…0cd2backed Lightning53c81$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.073100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x368c…b415backed Sabres32c78.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Sabres32c74.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6622842.5%97 W · 131 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bd6…1833backed Lightning68c73.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.94560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f80…cf55backed Lightning68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.531442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x945e…2acabacked Lightning69c67$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.778950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed Lightning69c67$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7714949.7%74 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88ad…4622backed Sabres47c66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8a…ec4cbacked Sabres33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Sabres30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1858346.5%271 W · 312 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34aa…980abacked Lightning68c58.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.82862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Sabres32c56.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1862944%277 W · 352 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…a5dbbacked Sabres32c53.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-48.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d9d…a8f9backed Lightning70c52.86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.861163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6cf…0c5abacked Sabres31c51.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9244…b955backed Lightning70c51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.31283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0498…52c5backed Lightning70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdb1…4253backed Sabres30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb299…4a62backed Lightning69c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.573157.5%420 W · 311 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Lightning71c49.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6297955.5%543 W · 436 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329b…c012backed Sabres47c49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4b…d41dbacked Sabres47c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x070e…3518backed Lightning53c44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7e…e5e9backed Sabres32c43.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.