Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59353b37f63829da6e9a7fef814585745425ff6e36a5ee528e996f2a995a813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof Team Falcons, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Virtus.pro | 45c | 999.95$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.97 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team Falcons | 55c | 416.36$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…5eeebacked Virtus.pro | 44c | 342.88$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.01 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…b3cdbacked Team Falcons | 54c | 276.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Team Falcons | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Virtus.pro | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 191.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Team Falcons | 55c | 182.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Team Falcons | 56c | 179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…deffbacked Team Falcons | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…98f1backed Team Falcons | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Team Falcons | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Team Falcons | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Team Falcons | 56c | 87.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Team Falcons | 41c | 76.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Virtus.pro | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Team Falcons | 50c | 59.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Virtus.pro | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Team Falcons | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Virtus.pro | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Virtus.pro | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.